Industry commentary: New trade routes reshape European biomethane trade

New trade routes reshape European biomethane trade

International biomethane trade has continued to develop in 2026 as more countries connect to the Association of Issuing Bodies (AIB) gas hub. The expansion is helping create more integrated European markets and greater price convergence for some products. But national support schemes, blending mandates and certification rules continue to drive significant price differences based on a range of variables.

A total of 16 countries are now connected through the AIB, allowing biomethane guarantees of origin (RGGOs) to be transferred across borders. Since the start of the year, France, Lithuania, Slovakia, Hungary and Sweden have joined the network, while several other countries are progressing towards membership. Each new connection expands the pool of buyers and sellers, giving producers access to larger markets and buyers access to a wider range of biomethane products.

The growing network is already changing trading patterns across Europe. Finland, which historically sourced most biomethane from the Netherlands and Latvia, is importing more from France since the latter joined the AIB. Portugal initially imported biomethane from Spain but has since shifted most of its imports from France.

New trade routes are also emerging. Italy received imported biomethane through the AIB system for the first time in 2026, while Spain has rapidly increased imports as access to additional suppliers expanded. Spanish imports rose from around 25GWh/month earlier in the year to roughly 150GWh in June and 186GWh in July.

Prices begin to converge

The integration of larger and more liquid markets is also beginning to influence price formation. Following the Netherlands' connection in 2025 and France's accession in 2026, two of Europe's most active biomethane markets are now directly linked through the AIB system. The shared registry framework has made it easier for market participants to source and market RGGOs across borders, increasing transparency and improving price comparison between national markets. To reflect the increasing harmonisation, Argus has launched market price indexes for biomethane sourced from AIB countries, complementing a broad suite of European price benchmarks that provide transparency in opaque markets.

Growing liquidity has also started to establish reference prices for internationally traded biomethane. Cross-border trading of AIB-based sustainability certificates for waste and manure-based products increased significantly in 2026. By August, unsubsidised waste-based biomethane RGGOs traded at around €45/MWh, while manure-based volumes were valued close to €130/MWh, according to Argus price benchmarks. For these products, market participants are increasingly looking beyond domestic markets and using international transactions as pricing references.

 

This greater connectivity has already contributed to stronger price convergence in some market segments. In January, subsidised waste-based biomethane from France traded at a discount of around €6/MWh to comparable Dutch volumes, according to Argus price benchmarks. Since France joined the AIB, prices for this product have largely aligned, reflecting growing cross-border trading activity between the two markets.

National targets and certification prevent full market convergence 

Greater market integration has not resulted in uniform pricing in all areas of biomethane. National targets, RED III implementation, support schemes and blending requirements continue to shape demand for specific biomethane products. As a result, substantial price premiums and discounts can emerge between products that may initially appear comparable.

The Netherlands provides one of the clearest examples. Since 1 January 2026, the country has replaced its former HBE system (Hernieuwbare Brandstofeenheden), which largely rewarded renewable fuels according to their energy content, with the ERE system (Emissiereductie-eenheden), which emphasises greenhouse gas reductions. Fuels with lower carbon intensity (CI) scores generate more certificates and attract greater compliance value.

Manure-based biomethane has been a key beneficiary of this shift. At the same time, market participants have increasingly factored in the Dutch green gas blending obligation expected to take effect in 2027. Because both mechanisms favour biomethane with high greenhouse gas savings, demand for low-CI products has increased sharply. Dutch unsubsidised manure-based biomethane is therefore currently trading at a premium of around €20/MWh to comparable internationally traded AIB products, according to Argus prices.

Germany highlights another factor preventing full market convergence: differences in certification methodologies. Although German manure-based biomethane prices have risen this year alongside higher natural gas values, they remain below equivalent Dutch and internationally traded AIB products. Market participants increasingly attribute part of this discount to differing approaches to calculating greenhouse gas savings.

Certification systems across Europe differ in how greenhouse gas emissions are calculated and tracked. Germany's Nabisy system allows proofs of sustainability (PoS) to be split while preserving feedstock-specific information, enabling manure-based biomethane to be marketed separately from other feedstocks. Other European systems often rely more heavily on aggregated mass-balance accounting. As a result, some market participants apply greater scrutiny to very low-carbon biomethane, particularly for compliance schemes such as FuelEU Maritime and national decarbonisation targets.

The European biomethane market is therefore becoming more connected, but not necessarily more uniform. Cross-border trade continues to expand and common price signals are emerging for some products. At the same time, national support schemes, compliance markets and certification methodologies remain powerful drivers of value, creating significant premiums and discounts across Europe.

For market participants, understanding biomethane markets increasingly requires a cross-border perspective. Regulatory changes in the Netherlands can influence prices in Germany, while developments in France may affect trading opportunities across the wider European market. New trade routes are helping establish European price references, while highlighting the continued importance of national policy differences.

Argus tracks