Industry commentary: FuelEU Maritime After the First Reporting Period: Interim Assessment of the Bio-LNG Market

With the entry into force of the FuelEU Maritime Regulation on January 1, 2025, the European shipping industry has undergone a paradigm shift: Mandatory reduction targets for greenhouse gas intensity are no longer merely regulatory announcements, but have become an operational reality. As we demonstrated in our previous analysis, bio-LNG is emerging as the key compliance fuel in this new era. More than a year after FuelEU Maritime took effect, it is time to assess and interpret the initial market reactions.

Subsidized biomethane dominates the maritime market

The question, which was still unresolved 12 months ago, of whether subsidized biomethane counts toward FuelEU Maritime targets has since been clarified by the European Commission: In a written response to a parliamentary inquiry, the Commission confirmed that FuelEU Maritime does not exclude emissions reductions supported by other incentive mechanisms. According to the Commission, there is no double counting in the strict sense, as the crediting takes place at different levels—Member States’ RED targets on the one hand, and shipping companies’ FuelEU obligations on the other.
The practical consequence: To date, almost exclusively subsidized biomethane volumes have been used in the maritime sector. This comes as little surprise, as subsidized certificates are significantly cheaper than their unsubsidized counterparts, and the regulatory clarification has eliminated the remaining uncertainty in the market.

Price Trends: Stable Surplus, Rising Certificate Prices

Prices for subsidized sustainability certificates (Blue PoS) continue to rise steadily. However, this does not yet make the maritime procurement market directly attractive for producers of unsubsidized biomethane. The price difference between subsidized and unsubsidized certificates remains too large for unsubsidized volumes to be competitive in the FuelEU market.
Trading in surplus compliance credits—that is, the sale of excess compliance credits between shipping companies via so-called surplus trading—has stabilized since mid-2025 at a level of €170 to €190 per ton of CO₂ equivalent.

First reporting period completed – penalties starting in May 2026

The first reporting period under FuelEU Maritime has been completed. Currently, the competent authorities—the DEHSt in Germany and the NEa in the Netherlands—are in the data collection phase: pooling agreements, banking registrations, and surplus trading records are being reviewed and consolidated. Starting May 1, 2026, penalties for non-compliance will be imposed for the first time.
Although—especially in the initial phase—handling sustainability certificates was unfamiliar to many market participants and the transfer of Blue PoS via email was thus relatively unregulated, we do not anticipate any serious problems with the crediting of certificates. The existing verification systems via Nabisy and the voluntary certification schemes (ISCC-EU, REDcert-EU) provide a sufficient foundation, and the authorities have indicated that they will take a pragmatic approach during the first reporting period.

Bio-LNG Demand: Strong Growth at the Zeebrugge Terminal

A look at the Fluxys LNG terminal in Zeebrugge illustrates the rapid market growth: By 2025, bio-LNG already accounted for around 37 percent of total bunkering volumes, with a significant increase from quarter to quarter.
It is generally expected that demand for bio-LNG will continue to rise. Drivers include the gradual tightening of FuelEU targets (a 6% reduction starting in 2030, compared to the current 2%), shipping companies’ growing awareness of the economic benefits of using bio-LNG, the expanding infrastructure for biomethane liquefaction at terminal sites, and the full order books for LNG tankers.

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agriportance supports the entire value chain from biomethane production to maritime crediting. With the FuelEU price ticker, we provide current market prices for bio-LNG certificates, and our experts assist with GHG accounting, verification, and the strategic use of pooling, banking, and surplus trading mechanisms.

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