Germany can reduce its CO₂ emissions by up to 90 per cent by 2050, if today’s technologies are used optimally in an ambitious transformation path. For this, the regulatory framework in the energy industry will need to be geared consistently – right from the start of the new legislative term – towards allowing climate protection technologies to prove themselves in a competitive market. The sectoral targets determined in the Climate Action Plan 2050 for the year 2030 are not yet fully aligned with the markers set. This is a first interim summary drawn up from the Study, which the Deutsche Energie-Agentur (dena) – the German Energy Agency – is currently conducting, along with scientific experts and more than 50 companies and industry associations from all sectors involved in the energy transition.

‘The energy transition is achievable if we approach it with determination, an openness to a range of technologies, and broad dialogue,’ said dena’s Chief Executive, Andreas Kuhlmann, on presenting the interim summary in Berlin. ‘This is precisely how we’re approaching our study. We’re bringing all industries and sectors to one table: energy production and distribution, buildings, industry and mobility. Together we’re working on transformation paths that are practical and goal-oriented. The dena Study Integrated Energy Transition invites policymakers to identify and enable the best transformation paths possible, also from the perspective of businesses. It’s clear to us now that we’ll make the best progress if we create the right conditions for competition and innovation. Scenarios that depend on a mix of technologies appear in the dena Study to be more economical and robust than those which have a high degree of bias towards electrification. For this we need long-term planning for incentives to encourage energy efficiency and avoid CO₂, which will have to be achieved through a radical reform of current systems of taxes, duties and reallocation charges. With coalition negotiations imminent, politicians have it in their power to determine the course to be taken.’

Three scenarios: projection, electrification, mix of technologies

The dena Study Integrated Energy Transition examines three scenarios. The first is a projected scenario which extrapolates from present circumstances and market trends, as well as from current political decisions. The climate protection target of 80 to 95 per cent fewer CO₂ emissions in 2050 compared to 1990 will clearly not be attained in this scenario. By 2050 CO₂ emissions can be reduced by 60 per cent at best. The second scenario depends on widespread electrification in industry, buildings and transport, and would lead to a significant increase in the demand for electricity. In this case CO₂ emissions could be reduced by up to 90 per cent.

The third scenario allows for a broad mix of technologies. Compared with the electrification scenario, this mixed technology scenario would lead to a higher proportion of gas and liquid fuels that would be produced synthetically using renewable energy sources, and mostly imported. Likewise, it would enable a 90 per cent reduction in CO₂ emissions. In addition, it would offer several benefits. It would make better use of existing infrastructures and infrastructures that would be required in the future, and would combine the benefits of various kinds of infrastructure in an integrated energy system. The costs of converting plants and systems to climate-friendly energy sources are low, because in the various areas of application the most economical technologies would come into play accordingly. Moreover, a mix of technologies would reduce the need to upgrade the electricity grid, particularly at distribution grid level. Finally, security of supply would be more easily guaranteed, since more storable energy sources would be available.

More prerequisites: more energy efficiency, more renewable energy, more grids

There are a few trends that run through all of the scenarios in the dena Study Integrated Energy Transition. The expansion of renewable energy will have to be undertaken at the highest level, and energy efficiency in households, industry, trade and transport must be increased considerably. It will require a significant infrastructure upgrade, particularly in the electricity grid. Efforts in research and development will have to be redoubled in order to stimulate innovation and bring innovations swiftly onto the market. This applies in particular to those industrial processes for which today’s technology offers no climate-friendly alternatives.

In any case, Germany will be dependent on close cooperation with other countries – whether it be to even out fluctuations in the grid, import climate-friendly sources of energy, promote the development of essential energy transition technologies, or obtain international agreements on cutting CO₂ in energy-intensive industries or areas of application. In view of the size and complexity of the changes necessitated by the energy transition, success will ultimately depend to a large extent on the general population being convinced of the opportunities and benefits in the long term.