dena and Ernst & Young present the "Deutscher Energiewende-Index" (DEX) – the "German Energy Transition Index".
Mixed verdict on Germany’s energy transition.
The Deutsche Energie-Agentur GmbH (dena) – the German Energy Agency – and Ernst & Young, the assurance and advisory services company, presented the "Deutscher Energiewende-Index" (DEX) – the "German Energy Transition Index" – in Berlin today. The DEX is based on a survey of management boards and CEOs from a range of sectors. In future the survey will be carried out quarterly*, delivering a regular reflection of German industry’s opinions of the progress of the transition from traditional to renewable forms of energy generation.
The initial survey made it clear that different sectors of industry affected by the energy transition have very different views. German industry expressed serious concerns in relation to the legal and regulatory framework, the economic viability of the energy supply and security of supply. There is a marked discrepancy between the mood in industry and in the political field, where views of the energy transition are much more positive. Overall the DEX in the second quarter of 2012 reflected a neutral value of 100.8 on a scale from 0 (negative) to 200 (positive).
At the presentation of the findings in Berlin, Thomas Kästner, Executive Director Ernst & Young, stated, "The DEX provides information on how decision makers evaluate the impacts of the energy transition on their industries. This index is an indicator for anyone who wants to estimate the impacts of the energy transition and the need for action.”
Stephan Kohler, dena's Chief Executive, emphasised, "The current DEX values clearly show that action must be taken, particularly in relation to framework conditions. We are behind schedule on several points in this area. The expansion of renewable energy generation must be better coordinated with the expansion of the grid; we must also work faster on extending the grid. In addition, market conditions must be created which make the construction of new gas-fired power stations and storage economically viable. If we can achieve all this, we can look forward with confidence to the energy transition.”
Concerns about framework conditions, competitiveness, economic viability and energy security
The companies surveyed expressed very negative opinions of the legal and regulatory conditions for the energy transition, which they view as inadequate or non-existent (DEX: 38.5). They are also concerned about the competitiveness of Germany as a location for industry: overall, German companies consider that the consequences of the energy transition put Germany's competitiveness at risk (DEX: 73.2). The topic of energy security is a source of great uncertainty for the companies; currently they assess this as positive (DEX: 112.6) but many companies fear a deterioration in the next twelve months (DEX: 75.7).
Positive expectations above all in the political field and among interest groups
Assessments of the energy transition vary from sector to sector. The mood among energy consumers (DEX: 95.9), network operators (DEX: 97.4) and energy utilities (DEX: 100.6) tends to be rather negative to neutral.
In the political field and among interest groups – in particular those representing the renewable energy sector and the energy efficiency sector – assessments of the energy transition are positive (DEX: 121.3). Those surveyed anticipate favourable impacts on future employment figures in Germany (DEX: 122.7). Overall, companies which provide products and services for the energy transition (DEX: 105.7) and in particular investors (DEX: 108.3) also expressed positive views of the energy transition.
The decision makers surveyed expressed positive expectations in relation to the development of new technologies, the contribution of energy efficiency measures to the achievement of energy saving targets and to the extent of investments to be made in the next twelve months. The impacts of the energy transition on environmental targets are also evaluated as strongly positive (DEX: 125.6).
*The survey for the first issue of the DEX took place from late April to early May 2012. Of the companies, cities and associations we invited to participate, 235 took part.